Government staff and pensioners are looking forward to a new beginning thanks to the 8th Pay Commission which will bring a salary revision after a long ten years. The Union Cabinet’s decision on January 17, 2025, to implement the change hopes to soften the effect of inflation on 49 lakh employees and 65 lakh pensioners. However, in the midst of excitement about gigantic increases, former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg gave a reality check on October 25, 2025. He asserts that the Prime Minister might directly announce a modest salary increase of 10-15%, thus avoiding the full commission drama. Such a buzz has made workers both hopeful and cautious for the specified rollout date of January 1, 2026.
Garg’s statement was immensely confident: Why not avoid the commission?
Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg is proposing that the government does not set up a new pay commission. During an interview, he forecasted that the Prime Minister might decide on a 10-15% raise going to straight from PM Narendra Modi. Already providing seamless transition and no demand for past due payments, different from in previous pay commissions. Garg refers to the 7th Pay Commission which confirmed grant of 14-15%, so it thus becomes the common practice in line with the past. Employees are impatient for instant relief through a hike, while unions like AIDEF are advocating for higher amounts, claiming that the delays are unjust.
Fitment Factor: The Actual Salary Multiplier
Garg’s valuation about fitment factor suggests it might be between 1.92 and 2.08 for a 10-30% hiked salaries scale after deduction. It is the basis on which the salary is calculated after combining with DA at 60% which is expected by January 2026 (currently at 58% which is going to increase in October 2025). For the minimum basic of ₹18,000, this means the salary would be in the range of ₹34,560-₹37,440 which is a good but not exceptional increase. The higher grades would experience similar percentage of increase along with adjustment of HRA and TA to be issued. The online salary calculators now include this for hassle-free forecasting.
Pensions and Perks Get a Lift Too
The pensioners are benefited the most by revising the scales in proportion, hence the last drawn pay of 50% would correspond to the new scales. Additionally, family pensions would increase in the same manner, and there will also be a 3% DA increase which is to be effective from July 1, 2025. Garg, however, cautions not to interpret the wild 186% claims as “asking for the moon.” Other states may also take a toll, hence millions more would be able to reap the benefits. But the experts in budgetary matters are already concerned about the fiscal strain, with a prediction of an additional spending of ₹1.8 lakh crore.
Timeline: Watch Diwali for Important Information
The Terms of Reference (ToR) are expected to be revealed by Diwali 2025, therefore, determining the commission’s authority. Garg foresees a slimmed-down process, given the firm rates that may come out in the middle of 2026 if bypassed. Trade unions have called for swifter measures, citing the current inflation rate of 6.2%. Check out the DoPT website for updates—your upcoming salary depends on it.
Garg’s expectation of a 10-15% uplift in salary keeps the most ridiculous fantasies grounded but at the same time it also implies comforting relieve from escalated costs for the government. The year 2026 is approaching and this could be a trigger for both spending and morale. So be alert, use the calculators wisely, and express your needs—awareness is the first step to getting your fair share. A generous salary revision today is an investment for a stable future.